Who Is the NFL Rookie QB GOAT? Evaluating Jayden Daniels and His 10 Closest Competitors

Today I’m going to do something quite rare for me, if not unprecedented. If you follow Rambling Ever On closely, especially our sports articles, you will think Mike Lytle wrote this instead of Gowdy Cannon.

Yet out of respect for Mike and also just the sheer difficulty of taking my normal route and ranking athletes with strong fiery opinions, I’m going to just give a list of the 11 most impressive rookie QB seasons in NFL history, key data about them, and make a few comments. Because Jayden Daniels is getting publicity from Washington’s playoff run and showing up on a lot of “Greatest Rookie QB Ever” lists, I wanted to jump in.

I think Jayden Daniels’ playoff success separates him from the rookie pack, but since he is being written about so much currently, I thought it would be interesting to consider who his main competition for Best NFL Rookie Season Ever is. I’ve come up with ten names in addition to Daniel’s.

I’ve evaluated them based on the criteria I consider to be most relevant. And I aimed for layers of criteria because if there is anything Mike and I have in common with sports it’s that we reject simplistic criteria. Which stands in sharp contrast to much of sports banter on social media nowadays.

I considered the following data points:
–How the team’s record changed from the previous year
–Basic passing stats (notably passing attempts as they tell how much a QB had to do)
–Rushing stats
–How the team’s offensive league ranks in points per drive and yards per drive changed from the previous season
–Strength of Schedule (SOS)
–Other notable personnel changes from the prior year, like coaches and key offensive weapons

If any of these are confusing or you just have questions about them and some of their nuances, like why points and yards per drive and not per game, please feel free to ask below. I will note that Strength of Schedule is based on how Pro Football Reference determines it and to be brief and not wordy I’ll say that the higher the number the tougher the schedule, and vice-versa. On to the list!

Last Two Rookie QB Omissions: Caleb Williams and Matt Ryan

Honorable Mention: Dan Marino (Miami 1983)

Record Change: 7-2 from 7-2 (the strike-shortened 1982 Season)
Passing Stats: 2200+ Yards. 20 TDs to 6 picks.

I didn’t rank Marino and didn’t give all of the data points for one simple reason: he only started in 9 games. I think to be on this list you should have started at least 80% of your team’s games. Yet I mention him because I don’t know if the modern era truly understands just how insane 20 TDs to 6 picks and 2200 yards in 9 starts (plus action in two other games) are for 1983. Had Shula put Rookie Marino in just a few games prior I think he would be a clear #1 on this list.

C.J. Stroud (Houston 2023)

Record Change: 9-6 from 3-13-1
Passing Stats: 63.9% on 499 Attempts. 23 TDs with 5 Ints. 4108 Yards.
Rushing Stats: 39-167, 3 TDs.
Offensive League Rank Changes: 13th Yards, 14th Points from 32nd and 31st.
SOS: -0.98
Other Significant Personel Change: COACH CHANGE–Lovie Smith to DeMarco Ryans
Also: 8th in MVP Voting.

This resume is probably the best of any rookie QB other than Daniels. He led the league in yards per game and interception percentage! The only non-positive nuances are that Houston’s strength of schedule was 3rd easiest on this list and coaching changes often help boost teams as well as new QBs.

Bo Nix (Denver 2024)

Record Change: 10-7 from 8-9.
Passing Stats: 66.3% on 567 Attempts. 29 TDs vs. 12 Ints. 3,775 Yards.
Rushing: 92-430-4 TDs
Offensive League Rank Changes: 26th in Yards and 21st in Points to 23rd and 16th
SOS: -0.32

The offensive output is impressive, notably how many passes he threw. Leading Denver to the playoffs for the first time post-Manning is huge. Negatives include there not being a huge improvement in the offense overall (though they did have Russell Wilson the year prior) and only a two-game W-L improvement. Though it is a lot harder to go from 8 wins to 10 than from 2 wins to 6. In my opinion. Rookie or not.

Dak Prescott (Dallas 2016)

Record Change: 13-3 from 4-12.
Passing Stats: 67.8% on 459 Attempts. 23 TDs with 4 Ints. 3667 Yards.
Rushing 57-282, 6 TDs.
6th in MVP voting.
4th in Yards and Points from 12th/29th.
SOS: -0.22.
Significant Personel Note: Ezekiel Elliot also drafted; Elliot finished 3rd in MVP Voting.

Like Nix, he was just an offensive machine in terms of output. And look at that 9-win improvement! His 6th place finish in MVP voting is the highest for a rookie quarterback of all time, other than Marino. If not for how crucial fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliot was, he’d likely be #1 on this list.

Cam Newton (Carolina 2011)

Record Change: 6-10 from 2-14.
Passing Stats: 60% on 517 Attempts. 21 TDs with 17 Ints. 4,081 yards.
Rushing Stats: 126-706, 14 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: 6th in yards and 5th in points from 32nd in both.
SOS: 0.14

Two insane rookie stats: He passed or rushed for 35 touchdowns! 35! Second most all-time. And look at those improvements in yards and points! From dead last in both to several stratospheres upward. The biggest knock is that he turned the ball over a lot (yet not with fumbles).

Jayden Daniels (Washington 2024)

Record Change: 12-5 from 4-13.
Passing Stats: 69% on 480 attempts. 25 TDs with 9 Ints. 3,558 yards.
Rushing: 148-891, 6 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: 7th in yards and 4th in points from 25th and 25th. Schedule -1.80.
Other Significant Personnel Changes: Owner, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator

With the playoff success (the vast majority of rookie QBs who made the conference championship didn’t do so with his stats and influence), he almost certainly should win this competition. But even aside from that, the offensive improvement and record improvement to go with his stats are remarkable. Like many, however, he did have a head coach change and his OC is especially of note. Kingsbury didn’t make it as a head coach but his offenses in Arizona were good.

Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh 2004)

Record Change: 13-0 from 6-10.
Passing Stats: 66.4% on 295 attempts. 17 TDs with 11 Ints. 2,621 Yards.
Rushing: 56-144, 1 TD.
Offensive Rank Changes: 12th and 9th from 21st and 22nd.
SOS: 1.44
Other Notable Personnel Changes: Addition of Duce Staley

The clear stat here is the team record, which by nature is more a team stat. It’s hard to deny, however, how impressive 13-0 as a rookie is, and against that strength of schedule. On the downside, even for 13 starts, he has a low amount of passing attempts and yards and the addition of Duce Staley was a key over the prior year.

Russell Wilson (Seattle 2012)

Record Change: 11-5 from 7-9.
Passing Stats: 64.1% on 393. 26 TDs with 10 Ints. 3,118 yards.
Rushing: 94-489, 4 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: From 30th in Yards and 25th in Points to 9th and 7th.
SOS: 1.79.

He tied the rookie TD record (at that point) with Manning and did it without 28 interceptions. Huge leaps in offensive production in yards and points. Hardest strength of schedule of anyone on this list. The biggest qualifier for him is that his defense in those early years in Seattle was fierce.

Robert Griffin III (Washington 2012)

Record Change: 9-6 from 5-11.
Passing Stats: 65.6% on 393. 20 TDs and 5 Ints. 3200 Yards.
Rushing Stats: 120-815, 7 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: From 16th in Yards and 22nd in Points to 6th and 5th.
SOS: 0.42.
Key Personnel Changes: The Addition of Alfred Morris

No real weaknesses here. A truly historic rookie QB season. That 4:1 TD to Int ratio is beautiful. Alfred Morris surely deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround as well, however, since he rushed for 1600+ yards.

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis 2012)

Record Change: 11-5 from 2-14.
Passing Stats: 54.1% on 627. 23 TDs and 18 Ints. 4,374 Yards.
Rushing: 62-255, 5 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: 12th in Yards and 19th in Points from 28th and 28th.
SOS: -2.84
Key Personal Changes–Two Coaching Changes: Pagano and Arians

This one is an enigma. Luck seemed to have a quality that caused everyone around him to play better and the 9-win improvement speaks to that. Yet he did have two significant coaching changes, and Arians in particular has been mega-successful in other places. And their SOS is by far the easiest on this list.

He also had a bad TD-to-Int ratio (for this list) and a low completion percentage (as he did about all of his career). Yet those 627 attempts, the most if you just go by average per game, of anyone on this list, prove he was asked to do way too much for a rookie quarterback. His 4,374 still stands as a record, even with the new 17-game season.

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers 2020)

Record Change: 6-9 from 5-11.
Passing Stats: 66.6% on 595 Attempts. 31 TDs to 10 Ints. 4,336 Yards.
Rushing: 55-234, 5 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes: From 4th and 12th to 11th and 17th.
SOS: -0.30.

This one is also odd because no one in rookie history filled up the stat sheet for a full season as Herbert did. Record for passing TDs and total TDs and just missed the yardage record. Yet the offense was actually worse under Herbert than the year prior. Though I hasten to add Phillip Rivers (late in his career) was the QB he replaced, while most QBs on this list replaced terrible QBs. The team also did not get much better as a whole.

Baker Mayfield (Cleveland 2017)

Record Change: 6-7 from 0-16.
Passing Stats: 63.8% on 486 Attempts. 27 TDs to 14 Ints. 3725 Yards.
Rushing: 39-131, 0 TDs.
Offensive Rank Changes 26th and 23rd from 23rd and 31st.
SOS: 1.73
Personnel Changes: Coaching Change mid-season

This one is the most fascinating to me. Incredible stats. Marked overall team improvement. I’d argue winning 6 games that year (in just 13 starts) might be more impressive than even the guys who led 9-win improvements. Because Cleveland not only was coming off of 0-16, but they were coming off of 1-31 over two seasons. This has been a loser franchise forever. And Mayfield as a rookie helped captain 6 wins vs. the second-hardest SOS on this list. The biggest knock is the offense overall didn’t get better than the year prior, at least not significantly.

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So as you look at the data and comments you can tell why it’s hard to rank these guys. They all have major strengths and most have records to their names. But they all have weaknesses or at least personnel changes that greatly benefitted them.

If I had to choose after Daniels, I’d probably take Stroud 2nd, Mayfield 3rd and Wilson 4th. But it’s razor-thin between all 10 of them. If you only count the regular season, it’s razor-thin among all 11, including Daniels. And it’s almost unfair to include post-season for Daniels, since asking a QB to lead a 0-win or 2-win team to the playoffs is borderline impossible.

But that’s just my opinion. What do you think? Tell us below!

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Gowdy Cannon

I am currently the pastor of Bear Point FWB Church in Sesser, IL. I previously served for 17 years as the associate bilingual pastor at Northwest Community Church in Chicago. My wife, Kayla, and I have been married over 9 years and have a 5-year-old son, Liam Erasmus, and a two-year-old, Bo Tyndale. I have been a student at Welch College in Nashville and at Moody Theological Seminary in Chicago. I love The USC (the real one in SC, not the other one in CA), Seinfeld, John 3:30, Chick-fil-A, Dumb and Dumber, the book of Job, preaching and teaching, and arguing about sports.

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